What Nba Games Should I Bet On Tonight
NBA betting, or wagering on any sport, should come with certain rewards besides the money you get from a winning bet. Sportsbooks see how valuable their customers are and want to give back. In the long run, keeping your betting game on the rails is one of the biggest factors that will separate you from winning and losing significant units of money. While some of the tips in this section can be applied to most other forms of sports betting, they are listed here because of their unique value to betting the NBA.
Here you will find free NHL picks as well as parlays for all of today's games. All of our expert hockey predictions will be money lines or puck lines. Bookmark this page and check back for daily updates.
Vegas Golden Knights vs Minnesota Wild Prediction, 3/10/2021 NHL Pick, Tips and Odds
by Tony Sink - 3/9/2021
The Vegas Golden Knights are scheduled to play the Minnesota Wild at Xcel Energy Center on Wednesday, March 10, 2021. The Wild open this contest at +103 while the Golden Knights are priced at -123. The O/U has been set at 5.5. This matchup report includes odds, betting trends and a free pick against the spread.
Ottawa Senators vs Edmonton Oilers Prediction, 3/10/2021 NHL Pick, Tips and Odds
by Guy Bruhn - 3/9/2021
The Ottawa Senators are on the docket to meet the Edmonton Oilers at Rogers Place on Wednesday, March 10, 2021. The line on this game has the Senators coming in at +210 and the Oilers are at -250. The over/under is set at 6.5. This report includes betting odds and our expert NHL picks for todays game.
Los Angeles Kings vs Anaheim Ducks Prediction, 3/10/2021 NHL Pick, Tips and Odds
by Parlays Pundit - 3/9/2021
The Los Angeles Kings are on the docket to take on the Anaheim Ducks at Honda Center on Wednesday, March 10, 2021. The Ducks open this matchup at +102 while the Kings are coming in at -122. The over/under opens at 5.5. We have included an expert pick and parlay for todays game against the spread.
Montreal Canadiens vs Vancouver Canucks Prediction, 3/10/2021 NHL Pick, Tips and Odds
by Guy Bruhn - 3/9/2021
The Montreal Canadiens are set to play the Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Arena on Wednesday, March 10, 2021. The Canadiens open this matchup at -143 while the Canucks are priced at +123. The over/under has been set at 6. This Matchup report includes Vegas odds and a free hockey pick for tonight.
Arizona Coyotes vs Colorado Avalanche Prediction, 3/10/2021 NHL Pick, Tips and Odds
by Josh Schonwald - 3/9/2021
The Arizona Coyotes are on the docket to meet the Colorado Avalanche at Ball Arena on Wednesday, March 10, 2021. The moneyline on this game has the Coyotes priced at +165 and the Avalanche are at -190. The total has been set at 5.5. This matchup report includes betting lines and our pick of the day for this game.
New York Rangers vs Pittsburgh Penguins Prediction, 3/9/2021 NHL Pick, Tips and Odds
by Tony Sink - 3/8/2021
The New York Rangers are on the docket to play the Pittsburgh Penguins at PPG Paints Arena on Tuesday, March 9, 2021. The Rangers open this game at +120 while the Penguins are coming in at -143. The over/under is set at 6.5. This matchup report includes odds, betting trends and a free pick against the spread.
New Jersey Devils vs Washington Capitals Prediction, 3/9/2021 NHL Pick, Tips and Odds
by Parlays Pundit - 3/8/2021
The New Jersey Devils are scheduled to go head to head with the Washington Capitals at Capital One Arena on Tuesday, March 9, 2021. The odds on this game have the Devils priced at +170 and the Capitals are at -208. The over/under opens at 6.5. We have included an expert pick and parlay for todays game against the spread.
Winnipeg Jets vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction, 3/9/2021 NHL Pick, Tips and Odds
by Tony Sink - 3/8/2021
The Winnipeg Jets are set to take on the Toronto Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena on Tuesday, March 9, 2021. The Jets open this matchup at +150 while the Maple Leafs are priced at -182. The over/under opens at 6.5. This matchup report has Vegas lines and an expert NHL pick for your daily winner.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Detroit Red Wings Prediction, 3/9/2021 NHL Pick, Tips and Odds
by Guy Bruhn - 3/8/2021
The Tampa Bay Lightning are on the docket to meet the Detroit Red Wings at Little Caesars Arena on Tuesday, March 9, 2021. The Red Wings open this contest at +210 while the Lightning are priced at -263. The total opens at 5.5. This Matchup report has your NHL pick of the day as well as NHL odds for the game.
Chicago Blackhawks vs Dallas Stars Prediction, 3/9/2021 NHL Pick, Tips and Odds
by Josh Schonwald - 3/8/2021
The Chicago Blackhawks are set to take on the Dallas Stars at American Airlines Center on Tuesday, March 9, 2021. The Stars open this matchup at -130 while the Blackhawks are coming in at +110. The over/under is set at 5.5. This report has odds and your NHL predictions for todays game against the spread.
Boston Bruins vs New York Islanders Prediction, 3/9/2021 NHL Pick, Tips and Odds
by Guy Bruhn - 3/8/2021
The Boston Bruins are scheduled to go head to head with the New York Islanders at Barclays Center on Tuesday, March 9, 2021. The Bruins open this matchup at -111 while the Islanders are priced at -105. The O/U opens at 5.5. This report includes betting odds and our expert NHL picks for todays game.
Florida Panthers vs Columbus Blue Jackets Prediction, 3/9/2021 NHL Pick, Tips and Odds
by Josh Schonwald - 3/8/2021
The Florida Panthers are on the docket to meet the Columbus Blue Jackets at Nationwide Arena on Tuesday, March 9, 2021. The Panthers open this matchup at -118 while the Blue Jackets are coming in at +100. The total is set at 5.5. This games report has current odds, betting trends, and free picks against the spread.
Nashville Predators vs Carolina Hurricanes Prediction, 3/9/2021 NHL Pick, Tips and Odds
by Guy Bruhn - 3/8/2021
The Nashville Predators are on the docket to meet the Carolina Hurricanes at PNC Arena on Tuesday, March 9, 2021. The odds on this matchup have the Predators priced at +145 and the Hurricanes are at -175. The O/U opens at 6.5. This Matchup report includes Vegas odds and a free hockey pick for tonight.
Buffalo Sabres vs Philadelphia Flyers Prediction, 3/9/2021 NHL Pick, Tips and Odds
by Josh Schonwald - 3/8/2021
The Buffalo Sabres are scheduled to take on the Philadelphia Flyers at Wells Fargo Center on Tuesday, March 9, 2021. The Flyers open this contest at -225 while the Sabres are coming in at +188. The over/under opens at 6.5. This matchup report includes betting lines and our pick of the day for this game.
Vegas Golden Knights vs Minnesota Wild Prediction, 3/8/2021 NHL Pick, Tips and Odds
by Tony Sink - 3/7/2021
The Vegas Golden Knights are on the docket to meet the Minnesota Wild at Xcel Energy Center on Monday, March 8, 2021. The Golden Knights open this game at -125 while the Wild are coming in at +105. The total has been set at 5.5. This matchup report includes odds, betting trends and a free pick against the spread.
Los Angeles Kings vs Anaheim Ducks Prediction, 3/8/2021 NHL Pick, Tips and Odds
by Guy Bruhn - 3/7/2021
The Los Angeles Kings are set to meet the Anaheim Ducks at Honda Center on Monday, March 8, 2021. The Kings open this matchup at -110 while the Ducks are priced at -104. The O/U opens at 5.5. This Matchup report includes Vegas odds and a free hockey pick for tonight.
Arizona Coyotes vs Colorado Avalanche Prediction, 3/8/2021 NHL Pick, Tips and Odds
by Josh Schonwald - 3/7/2021
The Arizona Coyotes are on the docket to meet the Colorado Avalanche at Ball Arena on Monday, March 8, 2021. The line on this game has the Coyotes coming in at +165 and the Avalanche are at -200. The total has been set at 5.5. This matchup report includes betting lines and our pick of the day for this game.
Ottawa Senators vs Edmonton Oilers Prediction, 3/8/2021 NHL Pick, Tips and Odds
by Guy Bruhn - 3/7/2021
The Ottawa Senators are scheduled to meet the Edmonton Oilers at Rogers Place on Monday, March 8, 2021. The Senators open this game at +200 while the Oilers are priced at -250. The total is set at 6.5. This report includes betting odds and our expert NHL picks for todays game.
St. Louis Blues vs San Jose Sharks Prediction, 3/8/2021 NHL Pick, Tips and Odds
by Josh Schonwald - 3/7/2021
The St. Louis Blues are scheduled to take on the San Jose Sharks at SAP Center on Monday, March 8, 2021. The Sharks open this game at +135 while the Blues are priced at -149. The O/U is set at 6.5. This games report has current odds, betting trends, and free picks against the spread.
Montreal Canadiens vs Vancouver Canucks Prediction, 3/8/2021 NHL Pick, Tips and Odds
by Parlays Pundit - 3/7/2021
The Montreal Canadiens are scheduled to take on the Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Arena on Monday, March 8, 2021. The Canadiens open this contest at -135 while the Canucks are priced at +121. The total opens at 6. We have included an expert pick and parlay for todays game against the spread.
1 234567891011 ... 446 Next >>Please note that the NHL picks above for tonight's games are not computer based picks. All of these articles are written by our talented staff. If you have any comments or suggestions please email service@docsports.com
NHL Picks
The NHL is the least wagered on league of the major American sports in both volume per game and through the course of the season. And while that may not be good for the business of sports betting advice, it is good for you, the bettor. You see, the less a game is bet the fewer opinions go into the line, the less accurate it will be, and the less the line is likely to change from the NHL opener. It's the same reason why hockey has lower limits when compared to say, basketball, football and even baseball. The hockey line has not been beaten and battered into shape. The sportsbooks don't make as much money on NHL betting because the volume is low. It's actually very possible the house will lose money on many games in a night, unlike NBA betting where it is nearly impossible to not be profitable if the sportsbook is booking for balanced action. But, sportsbooks have to offer NHL. They can't skip one of the big North American leagues. Canada may invade Vegas! But, that means opportunity for Doc's Sports to attack these raw lines and give you winning NHL plays!
Free NHL Picks and Expert Predictions
What Nba Games Should I Bet On Tonight
You can find Free NHL picks throughout the Doc's Sports network including this free NHL predictions page; on our Doc's NHL Experts page; and on the Youtube channels of our expert NHL handicappers. Those ready to take advantage of our Free $60 in member selections can click the button at the top of this page and start receiving free expert selections.
Get your NHL Picks Today, and Everyday!
Doc's offers expert NHL picks today and every day of the hockey season! There are indeed nights when hockey isn't the most exciting thing on. In fact, there are many games that aren't televised nationally. That is a huge advantage for puckheads who are either at the game, have people at the game reporting back, or are viewing them on a league pass stream. To put it bluntly, the less interesting a game is to the general public the more interesting the lines are to NHL handicappers at Doc Sports. At Doc's we know don't give out a hockey pick because some of our bettors are hockey fans. We give out hockey picks because we need to make our clients money, and the NHL is one of the most lucrative sports to build your bankroll. So even if you don't like watching the NHL do yourself and your bankroll a favor and start betting it with help of Doc's NHL experts on your side today.
Free NHL Money Line & Puck Line Picks
Unlike football, most NHL bettors are not going to make their hockey picks against the spread. There is indeed opportunity to bet the puck line and gain an advantage but we will primarily be betting teams to win straight up, also known as the money line.
As with all moneylines, Sportsbooks give each NHL team a return-on-investment payout. That means if you risk $100 on an underdog you may see your NHL selection return a much larger $165. Of course that also means that betting on a heavy hockey favorite, will bring a much smaller return than what you risked. So at Doc's we have to look at each play and ask ourselves, If we make this hockey bet 100 times, do we expect to come out well ahead? Many 'pro' NHL handicappers try to find that one pick on a marquee game that people will buy into. If they can find a play on teams from big cities, the audience will be bigger. That is selling out and not how you become a winning NHL bettor long term! If a Doc's handicapper has reason to believe Tampa Bay is more than at least one goal better, our free NHL pick against the puck line would be to take Tampa Bay -1.5 +150. This is how all bets on the spread AKA puck line work. But again, at Doc's the majority of our NHL selections are against the moneyline on games with odds never higher than -150 with our top plays. However, there can also be outstanding value on betting NHL totals.
NHL Total Predictions
The pace of the game, as well as which games have unique matchups, is a key factor when handicapping hockey games. When pace and matchup formation is an especially strong signal, it may dictate a pick on the over/under. An NHL over/under pick is another way of referring to a prediction on an NHL game goal total. NHL total lines are usually between 5 and 6.5 goals. This means there are many pushes AKA ties with NHL total bets. The way to win betting NHL totals is by getting these picks in at the best possible price. Similar to the run line each of the over and under have a varying price depending on the odds of each occurring. You can also almost always anticipate the empty net goal since teams will pull their goalie the final two minutes of the game when they are down 1 or 2 goals which benefits the over in certain situations. Also when teams are tied late in the game they start playing for the OT point so you can expect them not to take too many chances which could also affect the total in close games. At Doc's we provide NHL expert picks intended to capitalize on where there is a pricing advantage. We also provide free hockey total selections that are intended to help bettors with their hockey handicapping legwork.
NHL Parlay Picks
Parlay picks are considered degenerate bets usually placed by football fans. Parlaying NBA games often is a sucker bet and done without getting good prices or the best of key numbers. Hockey parlays are perhaps the easiest to gain an advantage. It is up there with baseball and may even be better in terms of capitalizing on good picks but more importantly, good pricing. Let's say you firmly believe a matchup is going to go a certain way. The game is not going to play out as the public expects because of the way a goalie handles this teams scoring threats! You can parlay the under and the underdog based on the perceived value. More importantly, if your sportsbook has a great price on the puck line as well as the total, or even a puck line price on another game, the payout can make this type of play advantageous over the long term. At Doc's our experts will offer a free hockey parlay pick in rare cases. It is not common because we need to find value for our customers on both lines before these markets change.
NHL Playoff Predictions
Once the regular season is over the NHL tends to pick up a lot of square action especially in large markets. Playoff hockey is all about how hot the goalies are since one hot goal tender can win a series for a mediocre team and this happens every single year so make sure you study up on the goalies. The fans often drive the prices as their teams take part in the playoffs. Bettors have much more time to make their NHL playoff picks as teams travel to each other's arenas and rest between series. Making successful Hockey playoff predictions is as much about when you bet as it is who you bet on. A series might not start for days. That means an NHL moneyline will move especially as the public bets closer to the action. If we see value in a playoff prediction it will rely heavily on getting the line we are quoting in our NHL pick. Getting the best price on your hockey picks versus the average price is the difference between having to hit 60% to earn or being profitable hitting as low as 50%. At Doc's we help you win, and win by betting smart.
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Of the four major American sports, the NBA is still regarded as the easiest to predict on a nightly basis. This perceived predictability is a double-edged sword; on one side, it’s nice to be able to handicap a matchup on your own and be fairly accurate more often than not. On the other side, the bookmakers are close to or spot on with their opening lines with more regularity than we’d desire.
Still, betting on NBA basketball offers great profit potential to those who know how to navigate this unique betting landscape. One big key to staying profitable in NBA betting is to understand how the lines are made and what they mean. Staying sharp in this area will allow you to find spots where the lines are off and ready to be hammered, and also when to stay away, which is a big skill in keeping a good margin in NBA betting.
Our ultimate NBA betting strategy guide comes directly from experts who have put their money where their mouths are and have made their livelihood as advantage bettors for years. They’re happy to share their insights and expertise to give you helpful strategies to improve your NBA betting prospects. Whether you’re new to NBA betting or you’re a seasoned gambler looking for a way to sharpen your basketball betting acumen, we’re very confident that you’ll find our tips useful.
Our guide is broken down into sections to help give you an easier read and help make things easy to find if you ever need to come back and get a refresher on a particular topic. Good to go? Let’s get started.
I. The Basics
These basic skills and strategies lay the groundwork for solid and informed NBA betting. You always want to have a good foundation to start with, and these tips help lay that groundwork. You might find some of these tips to be obvious, but simple disciplines go a long way. In the long run, keeping your betting game on the rails is one of the biggest factors that will separate you from winning and losing significant units of money.
While some of the tips in this section can be applied to most other forms of sports betting, they are listed here because of their unique value to betting the NBA.
Make a Bankroll Management Plan
Most folks budget when it comes to basic stuff like food or housing, but for whatever reason, they completely abandon this concept when it comes to gambling. But the bottom line is this: if you want to be able to gamble consistently and win, you have to have some basic bankroll management.
How you keep tabs on your betting bankroll is up to you; we’re not trying to force financial advice upon you. But NBA betting can be very intensive, and there is a lot of action to be had each night. To keep from hemorrhaging cash in a short amount of time, you want to have a good plan for what your overall bankroll is and what your standard bet will be based on the balance.
No matter how basic your method may be, having a way to keep an eye on your bankroll will help keep you from going off the rails with huge bets that could cripple you if they miss. You’ll also be more likely to avoid the temptation of chasing losses. A good plan is the best way to stay in the pocket with your betting system and find out what works and what doesn’t over an extended period of time.
Stay Informed on Player Injury and Rest Updates
There is no worse feeling than playing a betting line you think is way off base, only to realize after your loss that the line was “juicy” because a star player on the team you bet was out for the night with an injury or was being rested. Not only do you feel like a square for losing, but you feel regret because you know you could have made a better decision simply by checking out the injury updates.
This kind of stuff happens all the time, and it’s just a black hole for your bankroll. Please make sure you’re staying up to the minute on personal news when betting. In addition to knowing who’s in or out of a game, make sure you have the latest on things like minute restrictions or if a guy is playing banged-up and won’t be as productive. Incorporate the information however you wish; just make sure that you have it in the first place. Don’t bet blind.
We’re not blowing smoke just to make a point; this is a huge priority for any serious NBA bettor. This is because injury news about players often doesn’t break until very close to game time – sometimes mere minutes before tip-off! You must stay apprised of injuries or other happenings all the way to game time, and our advice to you is to place your bet as close to tip-off as you can.
This might sound cumbersome, but not only is there amazing value in saving money on a play you would have otherwise made, but you also will find easy profit opportunities betting the other way thanks to breaking news. There’s a reason the big sharps have little closed-circuit TV monitors in their private booths – they relish the opportunity to race a ticket in before the book can change a line or take it off the board altogether.
When news breaks, it takes time for books to adjust the lines. The sharks take advantage of this. The fish miss out or get eaten alive because they didn’t know the facts. Don’t be a fish; BE A SHARK!
Pay Attention to Schedules and Schedule Tracking
The premise is simple; teams don’t perform as well when they’re fatigued as they do when they’re fresh. Much like the injury tracking above, it’s also good common sense to make sure your betting horse isn’t limping into the arena on tired legs. But what was long held by sharps as a hunch has now become a legit game changer in the age of data. We’re sure some big shot at the books played a role as well, but the bottom line is that schedule tracking is a big thing to watch out for now.
What is schedule tracking, you ask? Schedule tracking is looking at a team’s schedule and looking for rough patches in the schedule that would lead the team to be tired or fatigued. The hope is that on these particular games, the betting line fails to reflect this crucial factoid and a team is overvalued, giving great value to a bet against that team. This is especially valuable for teams that the betting public likes no matter the case, as books have to keep the lines high to keep their action balanced.
There are multiple angles to look for when using scheduling to influence your betting. The most well-known example of a schedule-based betting trend is the “back-to-back,” which is the popular way of saying that a team will play on consecutive nights. Back-to-backs are a part of most NBA daily betting analyses when it’s in play, especially when the particular team’s games are on the road or have a road/home combo.
However, simply finding a team on a back-to-back is not enough to guarantee profit on your play. Like we said earlier, this is a majorly tracked trend now. The bookmakers now know that this kind of money will come in big and they’ve adjusted accordingly. Staying that crucial step ahead will require a bit more keen strategy. Thankfully, we’ve got just that in the next section, which focuses on skills you will want to incorporate specifically for NBA betting.
II. NBA Betting: Get the Edge
Having basic betting principles down is a great way to ensure that you’re not simply throwing your money away. Beyond that, you’ll want to have some skills specifically tailored to the sport you’re betting. Below are some of the strategies and tactics our experts employ to find the best lines and stay up on the books. We’re happy to share, and we encourage you to use them and improve upon them at home!
Read the Bookmaker
One of the most important principles Sun Tzu teaches in The Art of War is to know your enemy, and that’s what this tip is all about. Learning to think about the bookmaker’s intentions when putting out a line is definitely one of those “separator” skills – by that we mean that it’s one of those defining betting skills that separate the consistently profitable pros from the losing recreational bettors.
This is a “game behind the game” tip, but it’s extremely important in NBA betting (just as much as in NFL betting, in our opinion). The principle is to ask a very simple question: why did the book open the line at that number? Expert sharps consider it second nature to ask this question, but most folks never even think to.
We could list examples for days, but let’s discuss one to show you what we mean:
A and B are two evenly matched teams playing in a highly anticipated game where a lot of betting volume is expected. Team A is at home. After all the factors like home court advantage and such are factored in, the game is a true pick’em. So, what do you think the opening line will be?
Team A – (-1)
That’s right; if you thought zero, you’re wrong.
In this example, we said the game is a true pick’em, and it is. So why did the book open the line at -1? Great question! Now you’re learning.
This is a common example of the public’s inclination to bet the home team in true coin-flip situations. Another common perception (even amongst experienced NBA bettors) that are leveraged by the books in this example is that if a team is going to win, they’ll likely win by more than one point, so it’s worth it to lay the point and pay less vig than you would on a moneyline bet.
Bookmakers capitalize on these common perceptions by putting pick’em games out at Home Team (-1) or (-1.5) to make the public pay a premium on their habit. They’ll also put out Home Team (-1) opening lines even if the home team should open as a 1-point underdog.
The reason? If public perception is that the game is a flip, the bookmakers know they’re going to receive more bets on the home team. Therefore, they want that side of the action to pay the vig so they make their profit on the percentages in the long run. And overall, they do just that. So long as the game outcomes fall on the 50/50 line, they make money on the point and all the times the supposed “dog” comes through. You profit in this scenario by avoiding the trap of hammering what you think is a betting favorite only laying a point at home.
We aren’t saying that every opening line out there is a trap by the books. What we are saying is that by asking yourself what the book is trying to accomplish with a particular betting line (or price) and why the lines are where they are, you’ll find great opportunities all over the board on a regular basis.
Find the Shaded Lines
“Line shading” is a term referring to when a bookmaker anticipates heavy betting action on one side of a matchup and moves an opening betting line toward that side. Line shades can be small (one point) or large (3+ points) and are a great profit-seeking area of betting if you know how to find them.
Let’s say the Boston Celtics go on a hot streak (both in wins and ATS) that gets a lot of media attention. In such a case, more public bettors will start to come in wanting to ride the wave. To keep their betting handle balanced, the books respond by inflating lines involving the Celtics by a couple of points. So if the Celtics were supposed to be a (-9) favorite in a game, the books will put them out at (-11) instead.
Nba Games For Tonight
There is nothing wrong with what the bookmaker is doing here. If the Celtics stay hot, the books could lose a lot of money each game from lopsided betting on them. So shading the line is the correct move on their part so long as it evens out their action. They can discourage enough sharp bets on the Celtics who want to bet for value, and they make the public take a bigger risk of a dog cover.
In scenarios like these, the value play is often (but not always) to bet against the shaded line and take advantage of those underdog points. Both the books and the sophisticated bettors know that the line has been swung to disfavor a cover by the Celtics. It’s literally a gift to you. Take it! More often than not, the public will be disappointed, while the sharps enjoy a nice score and keep on trucking. The bookmaker is satisfied that they got enough action on both sides, and all is well in the betting world.
The only downside with this sort of play is that it is based on short-term perceptions, so you can’t really plan for it. The only real way to find these opportunities is to keep up with NBA news and events and build up a bit of a bettor’s intuition of when the masses have caused a line shade.
Nba Games Tonight Live
Another great scenario where books shade lines hard is on second-half lines where the action got super lopsided in the first half. This is covered a little bit later in the guide in the Middling Second-Half Bets section.
The overall principle here is to remember that line shading can happen for any reason. Much like the first section talking about reading the bookmaker’s intentions, a big part of finding a shaded line is to try to find out if the book is trying to encourage or discourage action on a certain side. The best way to do that is to stay informed.
Fade the Public
We’re sure you see this a lot; it’s part of almost any expert betting advice on any sport that’s out there. Well, it’s there for good reason! The books are there to make money, and they make money by forcing the public to pay a premium for their popular notions.
Even if a notion has merit, it will lose value in the betting market by way of having everyone doing it. It’s not that being with the public is always wrong; it’s just that in this business, it’s going to be very costly to do so over time. Awkward as it might be to tell your best buds that you bet against the hometown team this evening, it beats losing money to mere sentiment. Being a contrarian bettor is a skill you simply must embrace to keep your bankroll intact.
Betting against the public is a great intuition to have, and just by embracing it, you will find yourself sniffing out inflated lines and finding trends where the public is giving too much or too little credit to a team based on reputation or media coverage or whatever whim of the day.
Our tip to you is just to make sure you don’t overdo it. It’s nice to have the skill and the fortitude to go the other way when it’s the right play, but make sure it’s the right play. It’s not enough to find the public’s money and go the other way. That is a losing system. Instead, make sure you combine your plays against the grain with other supplemental factors that make your bet more of a high percentage prospect, e.g., an inflated line or a scheduling trend.
Know How to Middle the Second Half
Now we’re betting some NBA! This is a sweet play that you’ll want to learn; it’s an absolute moneymaker, and it’s a part of every professional bettor’s arsenal.
For those not familiar, the term “middle” or “middling” refers to instances where swings in the betting lines allow for opportunities where a player can bet both sides of a game and potentially win both bets.
Atlanta is playing Boston, and the line opens with Boston as a (-5) favorite. You bet on Boston.
An hour before tip-off, it is announced that Atlanta is resting two of its best players that evening and they will not play. Betting action comes in very heavy on Boston, and the book responds by swinging the line on all the way up to a (-10) favorite.
The middling opportunity here is if you bet Atlanta (+10). No matter what, you will win one of your bets. But if Boston wins by 6, 7, 8, or 9 points, both tickets get paid.
This may sound like free money, but there is risk involved: while one of your bets will come through, if both don’t, you will be a slight loser by paying the vig to the house. Make sure you’re aware of the probabilities versus the price before deciding to take a middle.
Now that we have middling down, let’s make some money.
The tip we’re suggesting you look out for is when you’ve already wagered on an NBA game, and then the first half results in a blowout for one side.
Chicago is playing Detroit, and you bet Detroit as a (+3) underdog.
Detroit blows out Chicago in the first half and leads by 15 at halftime.
The bookmaker puts the second half line at Chicago (-6).
BEGIN HAPPY DANCE.
In this scenario, you already have an 18-point cushion for your (+3) bet on Detroit. Excellent.
But if you bet Chicago to cover the (-6) in the second half, Chicago can win the half by anywhere between 7 and 18 points and both of your bets will get paid (excluding O.T.). You now have an 11-point range where both bets will win. Most Excellent.
That example is not an exaggeration. Middling opportunities like these are out there throughout the NBA season. Sportsbooks make a ton offering half lines. But their weakness with some of these lines is that they have to put the line out based on where they think the bets will fall, the action that’s occurred, and the action they’ve already taken on the game. They also have to be wary of what competitors’ books are doing. And they have to do it all in very short time (while the teams are in the locker room).
Look for opportunities like these and crush the books when they give you a big opportunity like this. It’s a winning play that’s yet to be corrected in the betting markets, and we highly encourage you to take advantage of it.
The best way to take advantage of this play is to have access to multiple accounts across betting sites. It allows you to line shop all over the world and increase your chances of finding these great plays. If you’re interested, you can find information on safe and reliable sports betting sites on our main pages.
Here are some other great tips and trends to help you become a great NBA handicapper:
Energy and Morale
The art of gauging a team’s energy level has many components. Part of it is being in tune with their schedule, and part of it is staying in tune with locker room tensions or stress (and how these tensions are affecting performance).
This is a difficult betting nuance to write about, especially for experienced bettors. So much of what you analyze in professional betting are hard numbers – spreads, stats, scores, rinse and repeat. Asking you to place actual value on something like locker room drama is a tough sell.
But the numbers we crunch are often just reflections of the trends we find by using our senses to observe the teams. How did player rest become a big trend in NBA betting? Because we observed it, bet on it when others weren’t, and won big. More than any other method, this how the pros find new trends before anyone else.
Following this tip is asking you to trust your gut, scary as that can be for some. This isn’t for everyone; if you just want to be a snipe-the-numbers bettor, that’s perfectly fine. You can make good and consistent money just going the math route. But in our opinion, the truly elite sports bettors – the ones who make trends and bend lines – trust their intuition on how to gauge a team’s energy level and determine when a team is ripe to over/underperform a line that’s out there.
If you decide to use this factor in your betting system, our #1 piece of advice to you is simply to take notes on why you’re betting a certain way so that you can track your results over time.
Don’t Be Afraid of Road Favorites
More than the other major sports, NBA lines are influenced by two big betting habits: home court advantage, and a team’s previous game(s). Most public bettors fear losing a bet because the other team got a charge from the home crowd or “got home calls from the refs.” It’s the reason they play so heavily on home teams.
As a result, there are often great value plays for good teams that hit the road. Books know they’re going to get big action on the home underdog even after they shade the opening line toward them. Worse case, the sharps hammer them early, they move the line toward the road favorite, and they’ll get the home team bets on the back end.
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This is especially true of teams coming off a big loss in their last game. If a solid team is on a road trip and they get blown out in one game, take a look at them in the next game if they’re a favorite. Not only are they a good team looking to bounce back, but they’re probably playing a clearly inferior team if they’re still listed as a favorite on the road despite the bad loss. You’re might benefit from a more significant point swing in your favor, as well.
Sometimes it pays to be early in this spot, but all the same, the play is there. You’ll have to sweat out some home calls here and there, but this play performs quite well over time.
III. NBA Betting: Keep the Edge
Once you have some solid betting strategies to wield, it’s great to see good results come in. Staying ahead, however, means never being complacent and always looking for ways to improve your betting system. This section has just a couple of tips that we think you should consider to help tighten up your game.
Track Your Bets by Team; Consider Specializing
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Every bettor has strengths and weaknesses in their game. Some of it is just natural. For instance, time zones alone can determine what teams a person sees more often than others.
This tip isn’t about overall strategy so much as it’s about tracking your bets and making sure your results are consistent across teams.
When you bet a game, you’re betting on the performance of both the winning and losing teams. If you find that you’re crushing your bets on one team and whiffing more often than you’d like on others, take a step back and ask yourself why. Hopefully, you’ll reach the desired effect and find out if and where you might be weak in your observation of certain teams. Then you’ll know exactly where you must either improve your analysis or just save some of those losing bets.
If you find that you’re consistently doing well with a certain group of teams, e.g., the division your favorite team is in, consider specializing your bets to games involving those teams and branching out from there. You’ll have a little less to chew on, and your laser-beam focus on just a few teams can keep your good results consistent.
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Track Your Results by Bet Type
You certainly want to keep good records of your results no matter what sport you’re betting – it’s the mark of a good handicapper. But we think it’s particularly important to track your NBA bets by bet type. By bet type, we primarily mean tracking your bets by:
- Spreads vs. money lines
- Straight bets vs. parlays (and if parlays, how many legs)
- Full-game bets vs. 1st/2nd half bets or bets on quarters
These are just the most basic examples, but you can track your bets by any kind of pattern that you think is worth a second look. The most important thing is that you actually do it. The point of it is to make sure that each type of bet you put down is making you money. If a certain bet you’re making is a drain on your bankroll over time, save that bet or transfer it into a bet type that performs well for you.
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Tracking your NBA bets will also help you ensure that you’re not throwing away your money on certain types of bets. If you’re performing well on full-game and second-half bets, but you’re bleeding cash on first-half bets, stop betting the first half! Likewise if you’re grinding out a nice profit on straight bets, only to give it right back by gambling on frivolous long-shot parlays.
Bottom line: tracking your results by bet type will make you money, save you money, and help you identify your strong and weak betting areas.
We hope you found our guide helpful and fun to read, and we’re rooting for you find those trends that work for you and pad your bankroll. No matter what happens, remember to have fun and enjoy the games!