Over And Under Betting
Over Under Betting is the second most popular type of NFL betting, just behind spread betting. Over Under Betting is also known as “Game Total Betting” and you will often see it be referred to as either term. Beginner NFL bettors may be confused by Over Under Betting, but it is very easy to learn and understand once explained.
- Over And Under Betting Rules
- Over And Under Betting Odds
- Over And Under Betting Rules
- Over And Under Betting Meaning
Over / Under is a betting option on the total number of goals to be achieved in a sporting event. Players have two options. To choose Under 2.5 goals (no goal scoring, 1 goal, or 2 goals) or Over 2.5 goals (3. UNDER BETTING When you bet the Over Under, you don’t care who wins the game, all you are focusing on is the combined score of the two teams at the end of the game. Here is a quick guide to over.
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In Over Under Betting the oddsmakers will set a number of points in which they think both teams will score in total throughout the whole game (including overtime if necessary). Bettors will then be able to bet on the total number of points scored by both teams combined to be over or under that set game total number. For example, the number may be set at 42.5 points. If you bet the “over” you would need a combined 43 or more points from both teams in order to win your bet (a 28-17 score would win you the bet). If you were to place your money on the “under” you would need both teams to combine for 42 or less points throughout the game (a 21-17 game would win you the under bet).
Example of NFL Over Under Bet
Below is an example of what an NFL Over Under line would look like:
Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Over 37.5 (-110)
Under 37.5 (-110)
The number next to the Over and Under is always going to be the same, and represents the set game total. In this case the game total was set by the oddsmakers at 37.5. You would then have the choice to place your bet on both teams scoring more than 37.5 combined points (the Over) or less than 37.5 combined points (the Under). The (-110) beside each choice represents the betting odds, which I will explain more below.
If the final score ended up being Pittsburgh 21 Baltimore 14 we would have a total combined score of 35 points, and therefore the “under” bet would win.
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Other NFL Over Under Betting Information
Although the most common odds set for Over Under lines are -110 or 10% juice on either side it definitely isn’t always the case. The set game total number will always be changing in small increments before kickoff, but the odds will always slightly change before the game total does. Using our above example we might see the odds changed to “Over (-105) and Under (-115)” before we see the game total number adjusted to 37.
That brings me to my next point about NFL Over Under Betting – the game total doesn’t always have to be a decimal number. Although more often than not they are a decimal numbers, you will often see the game total being an even integer such as 39, 41, 44, etc. With an even number game total you may see the combined score end up exactly on the number. In that case the bets on both the Over and Under would be refunded. For example, if the game total was set at 41 and we had a final score of 24-17 it would be considered a “push” and all bets on either side of the number are refunded back to the bettors.
Some of the better online betting sites, such as 5Dimes, may even allow you to adjust the game total either way with the odds of course reflecting the change (known as alternate lines). For example, the game total was set at 41.5 and you thought the oddsmakers did a bad job and the game was going to be a lot higher scoring. In some sportsbooks you would be able to select an alternate game total of 44.5 for example and bet the over, which would payout a lot more than the over on the 41.5 line.
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NFL Strategy Articles:
We have a professional sports bettor writing strategy articles here at TheSportsGeek.com. Check them out on the sports betting strategy page of our website, and hopefully you will pick up some tips that will help you make some money betting on NFL totals.
The NBA might be one of the hardest sports to turn a profit in by wagering on the totals. In sports like football, hockey, or even baseball, teams can get lucky and have runs gifted to them by turnovers, own goals, or even errors. However, in basketball, a team can only score and accumulate points themselves. If they are having an off night shooting the basketball, your 'over' bet is as good as garbage. Unless of course their opponent picks up the slack and scores around 60 percent of the total - something that very rarely happens. To put that in perspective, 60 percent of 210 is 126. The final score would be 126-84, and those type of blowouts don't happen too often. If you take an 'under' and a team finishes the game shooting around 55-60% from the floor, the chances of that game staying 'under' the number are very slim.
Which is why for the two reasons I stated above, the NBA is one of the hardest sports to place a totals bet on. However, if you still insist, here are some key statistics you should really look into before risking your hard-earned money. Also, check below on this article for expert tips from Doc’s Sports best NBA handicapping experts for betting pro basketball totals.
Pace of Play
This is probably the most important factor to consider when looking at NBA totals, regardless of if you are favoring the 'over' or 'under'. The pace of play is a tool used by handicappers to determine an approximate number of possessions a team has per game. The thought process behind this being that the more possessions a team has per game, the quicker the game and the more opportunities each team has to score. For the math wizards out there, this will make sense to you. However, for those lacking in the math category, there is a statistical formula that is used to determine a team's pace of play.
The formula is: ((Tm Poss +Opp Poss) / 2 * (Tm MP/5)).
The first part of the formula is the simple part. It takes the number of possessions team A has and adds them to the number of possessions for Team B. The second part of the equation is the total team minutes played divided by five since there are five players on the court for each team.
For example - (99 + 93 ) / 2 * (240/5) = 79.50 possessions. This means that over the course of that specific game, Team A would have had 96 possessions. As each game passes and the formula gets used, the average number of possessions a team has per game will either increase or decrease.
Why is this important to betting NBA totals? Well, think of it this way, the more possessions a team has, the more chances they have to score and accumulate points. The more possessions a team has, the more possessions they give their opponent as well. And vice-versa for the other side. The fewer amount of possessions a team averages per game, the fewer chances to score, thus likely playing to the 'under'.
Defensive Rating / Offensive Rating
'Defensive rating' is essentially 'points allowed' but in a more detailed and complex way. The reality of the matter is that every team goes through high points and low points throughout a grueling 82-game schedule. The highs are generally buoyed by great offensive performances and by playing shut-down defense while the low times are poor performances on both sides of the ball. The 'points allowed' category considers the entire body of work, regardless of a certain spot a team is in - think third game in four nights. The averages rise and drop with each game. Defensive rating is the next step beyond 'points allowed'.
When you hear someone talking about defensive rating, they are referring to the number of points allowed per 100 possessions. This concept correlates to betting NBA totals because if a team has a defensive rating of 110.6, that means they are giving up 110.6 points per 100 possessions. That in turn means the game should very likely go over the posted total. If a team has a defensive rating of anything between 100-103, there is a pretty good chance they are one of the best defensive teams in the league and tend to play to the 'under'.
Now, using the stats as the sole reason you place an NBA totals wager is foolish. You must take into consideration a plethora of other things including a team's offensive rating.
This is other side of the coin in terms of team ratings. Offensive ratings tell you how many points a team averages per 100 possessions. Not every team in the league averages 100 possessions per game (as indicated by the pace of play formula), so using this statistic on its own to blindly bet totals would be a foolish move.
Scheduling Quirks
And lastly, I know the title says which 'stats' to focus on when betting NBA totals, and scheduling quirks isn't exactly a statistic, but it's an important piece to the puzzle. While you may watch sports on a nightly basis and yell at your TV when a player misses a shot, it's vital to keep in mind that these professional athletes are humans too. They too can get distracted with the hoopla that comes with being a pro athlete/celebrity, and they can also get tired. They are on the road plenty of the course of an 82-game season, and when they are gearing up for their third game in four nights, or fifth road game in their fifth different city on a seven-game road trip, sometimes, they just may not be feeling 100 percent.
Think about how tired you would be if you had to give it your all for 48 minutes one night, travel overnight then gear up for another game just 18 hours later. You'd be exhausted, and you probably wouldn't have any energy in your legs to make the shots you usually knock down. I get the fact that these are professional athletes and have the world of support around them, but many of them are rhythm players, and when they aren't feeling it the shots just don't drop.
Over And Under Betting Rules
It's important to look at the schedule and see where a team has been or how they've been performing prior to the game you plan on betting.
“I always look for teams that face inflated, or public, totals on a nightly basis. A good example of this is the Golden State Warriors, who have been a very good “Under” team the last couple years (before the injuries hit this team hard). Golden State was above and beyond the best offensive team in the NBA. And they played a very fast-paced game. But they were also a team full of athletes and a very good defensive team. That might have not always shown on the scoreboard, mainly because the pace benefited both offenses, but they were good at getting stops when they needed to, and the oddsmakers would inflate the totals on a nightly basis since the general betting public would only concentrate on the “Over” in games involving the Warriors. And the numbers were so high, a slight cold shooting streak by one or both of the teams would create a situation where the final result would come in way under the posted number.” – Doc’s Sports
“I have always believed that if a team is out of the playoffs, they have a tendency to get up for the best teams in the league. It's human nature. Think about it: if you are a terrible team, wouldn’t you get up for a game against the best team in the league? And, would the best team in the league not try to overlook you, not play as hard and rest a little bit in the grind of a season? Of course. So, always keep an eye on the best team facing the worst team in the league and you can use the IC Active Underdog Theory. which is essentially the underdog shows up, is an active dog. and pushes the total over. “ – Arun Shiva
“Pace of play is always going to be one of, if not the most significant factors when it comes to totals. But motivation makes a difference too. If a team is more motivated, for whatever reason, they are going to be more likely to get out and run and push the tempo. This is especially true if a team is playing in front of its home crowd because they are more likely to use that energy and put it into their transition game.” -- Nolan Sinclair, Strike Point Sports
“Basketball players are always going to have energy on the offensive end. But when teams and players get tired, you can expect it to impact them more on the defensive end, and that should mean higher point totals.“ -- Robert Ferringo
Over And Under Betting Odds
“I look to bet ‘over’ on teams at the end of long road trips or teams that have had to play three games in four days. Tired teams are easy to expose on the defensive end because playing team defense requires focus, effort and teamwork. If one or two guys are dragging a bit on defense, it affects the whole team and they are going to get roasted.” -- Robert Ferringo
Over And Under Betting Rules
“Offensive and defensive ratings are important. But know that motivation and line value are even more important. Consider when a team loses a star player to injury. Generally, the oddsmakers and the public overreact on the total. What they forget is that teammates tend to step their effort level up when they lose a star player and that generally leads to a short-term bump in teams going ‘over’.” -- Robert Ferringo
Over And Under Betting Meaning
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