Breeders Cup Classic 2016 Picks
Breeders' Cup Classic 2016: Latest Odds, Predictions Heading into Saturday Tyler Conway @ jtylerconway. Frosted finished seventh in last year's Breeders' Cup Classic, so that should tell you. The 2016 Breeders' Cup Classic was the 33rd running of the Breeders' Cup Classic, part of the 2016 Breeders' Cup World Thoroughbred Championships program. It was run on November 5, 2016 at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California with a purse of $6,000,000. Arrogate runs down California Chrome in the final yards of the Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita Park on November 5, 2016.
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- Breeders Cup Classic 2016 Picks Against
- Breeders Cup Classic 2014
- Breeders Cup Classic 2016
Breeders Cup Classic 2016 Picks Ats
The pre-entries are in, and we have the best idea yet of what the breeders' Cup Classic field will look like. Things can, and likely will, still change, but the main storylines in this race have been set. That means we can start to look at which horses are contenders and which ones are just along for the ride - hoping for a small piece of a big purse. Fourteen horses were pre-entered for this $6 million race on Nov. 5, with 13 likely to be entered on Monday when things have to be made final. Of that group there are eight that I view as more legitimate contenders than the rest. Here are the eight horses that can win the Breeders' Cup Classic in 2016:
California Chrome: Alright, I finally admit it - he is a good horse. I have looked to beat him pretty much every time he has started since the Santa Anita Derby two years back. That worked well for me in the Belmont and the Breeders' Cup Classic, and for a long time was generally profitable. Over the last year, though, he has emerged as a true beast, dispatching everyone he has faced with authority. He's the cream of the crop and will be a deserving favorite. He has won six straight, including the Dubai World Cup and two big stakes races on this same Santa Anita surface. I respect him. He is probably the most likely to win the race. I'm also likely to look to beat him here, though - at the price he is likely to go off at there are others that are more intriguing and offer better value.
Arrogate: This horse is wildly intriguing, and he makes my head hurt. Heading into the Travers, the biggest race for three year olds of the year outside of the Triple Crown, he was a little-known horse making his stakes debut. The field there was deep and solid. He didn't just beat it; he annihilated it. He won by more than 13 lengths, and that was despite a bit of a rough start. And he was really fast, too. He hasn't raced since. So, he has one stakes win, but he's the fastest horse in the field, his workouts show he is fit, and it seems like he can run forever. Oh, and trainer Bob Baffert has won this race the last two years. So, basically, the next two weeks will consist of me trying to convince myself not to bet on this horse. I may not succeed.
Frosted: The owners were debating, and I really expected them to opt for the Dirt Mile instead of this spot. I kind of wish they had. After a mild performance in the Dubai World Cup, he came back and became the king of the early summer for older horses. His 14-length win in the Metropolitan Handicap was perhaps the most impressive performance by any horse this year, and he followed it up by winning the Whitney easily. The hype dimmed slightly, though, when he was a solidly-beaten third in the Woodward behind Shaman Ghost. The ride he got there was lousy, though, so the result may not have been all his fault. He was solid in his Derby and Belmont, so we know he can handle this distance, but he hasn't done it well lately, and we can't be sure he is in top form. I like this horse a lot, but I'll need a good price to do more than put him in the lower parts of my exotics.
Found: This European filly is wildly talented and could be a factor for sure. You have to be skeptical, though, because of her workload. She won the Arc de Triomphe on Oct. 2 and then came back to be a solid second in the Champion Stakes at Ascot. So this will be her third world-class race in her third country in five weeks. Oh yeah - and she has never run on dirt, either. That is a whole lot to ask - and a whole lot more than is ever really asked of North American horses outside of the Triple Crown. I'd like her a lot more if she was fresh, but she's a piece of it.
Hoppertunity: This is the other Baffert horse here. He is coming off a big win in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, but he hasn't generally been good enough against the best. I like him to get a piece of the action but not the win.
Melatonin: He has won two Grade 1 races at Santa Anita this year, so he has the home-field advantage. He hasn't raced since his last win there in June, though, so we have no way of knowing if he is fresh enough. He has worked reasonably well, but we'd need a real price to get excited about him.
Effinex: He was second behind American Pharoah in the Classic last year and has since been in the mix against decent horses in several races. He's a factor for a piece, too - another part of a very deep second tier in this one.
Breeders Cup Classic 2016 Picks Against
Nyquist: He makes this list because he is the Kentucky Derby winner and because he won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last year. He hasn't been the same since getting burned by a speed duel in the Preakness, though, and I am not expecting him to be any factor at all against this field of primarily older horses. His time has passed - at least for this season.
Breeders Cup Classic 2014
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This is it - the biggest, richest race in North America. The one for all the marbles. It's not the deepest field we have seen, but it promises to be a good race nonetheless. You have California Chrome, the elder statesman who is the top dirt horse in the world and who is starting his farewell tour and is looking to go out on top. And you have Arrogate, the freakish three year old who has only one stakes to his credit - bit what a race it was. There are others, but it's all about those two. If one of them doesn't win then they have locked into a speed duel that neither could handle. They seem too good for that, so it should be a treat. Here is a look at those two and a couple of others that could be relevant:
Breeders Cup Classic 2016
California Chrome (even money on the morning line): It took me a long time to warm up to California Chrome and give him the full respect that I do now. I was always skeptical of his Triple Crown run and was the least-surprised person in the world when he lost the Belmont. The rest of his three year old year was forgettable, and his four year old year was basically lost. I wrote him off heading into this season. Oops. He started off by winning the San Pasqual here at Santa Anita. It wasn't a perfect race, but it was solid. Then he headed to Dubai, won a prep race, and then dominated in the Dubai World Cup. I picked against him there, too - though in my defense that was mostly about price. Then he was freshened before heading back to California, where he has won three in a row against good company. Six wins. None short of impressive. He's the best horse in the world right now - or at least the best dirt horse. He's working great, and he clearly likes this track. This is his race to lose, and on his best day only Arrogate has a chance to really challenge him. I'm likely not to bet him to win, though - but that's not because I'm stupid but because I need more value than he is likely to offer because the public is going to be all over him.
Arrogate (5/2): This is the kind of horse that makes handicapping so great. He's a three-year-old colt that was slow to develop - he made his first start well after all of the Kentucky Derby horses had finished their last prep race. He didn't break his maiden until his second try in June. Then he won two allowance races. He didn't make his stakes debut until the Travers on Aug. 27. That's no worse than the fourth biggest three year old race of the year, so it was a tough spot to jump into things. He obviously wasn't bothered. All he did was win by 14 lengths while setting a track record at the most historic track in America. It was a magical outing. And he hasn't raced since. So, is this a superfreak sent to us to redefine the sport? Or is he a good horse who had a perfect day at the right time? Trainer Bob Baffert is a master at running three year olds against older horses successfully, and he knows how to win this race - he has won it the last two years. He and Chrome are both horses that like to be near the lead. Their likely duel has the chance to be the greatest thing we have seen since American Pharoah last stepped on the track. I'm a believer in a big way, but then I'm the guy who never bets on California Chrome, so take it with a grain of salt.
Frosted (5/1): He was the star of the early summer with two dominating wins, taking the Met Mile by more than 14 lengths, in arguably the performance of the year, and then the Whitney. He was less impressive last time out in the Woodward, but the bad ride was as much to blame as anything. He wasn't nearly good enough against California Chrome in the Dubai World Cup, and I question if he is truly up to this distance. I was hoping his connections would opt for the Dirt Mile - a showdown with him and Dortmund would have been epic. As it stands, though, I don't see him as good enough for anything more than just a piece.
Hoppertunity (15/1): Baffert has won this twice in a row, so we can't ignore the 'other' Baffert runner here. He was a decent third in the Dubai World Cup this year, and he won the Jockey Club Gold Cup last time out, so he is capable of big race performances. He wasn't quite good enough in two California outings this year, though, and I'm not confident he can make up the gap. Again, a contender for a piece, but not for the win, unless things blow up.
Melatonin (12/1): This five year old is a late bloomer, only coming to graded stakes action this year. He has done very well, winning two at Santa Anita and finishing second in another at Oaklawn. He's coming off a four-month layoff due to illness, though, so we can't be sure if he is going to be back to his best - or if that best is even good enough because he has avoided Chrome so far. I'll toss him, but I'll be worried about it.
Shaman Ghost (20/1): This guy had great racing luck and took advantage of it to win the Woodward last time out. He also won the Brooklyn at a mile and a half, though, so he has the stamina here. I just don't think he has the speed for this field.
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